Market Changes and Development of the Cold Chain Equipment Industry in the New Cycle

At the recently held "2024 China Cold Chain Equipment Industry Development and Technology Forum," Xing Shan, Senior Product Director of the Refrigeration Division at Industry Online, delivered a speech titled "Market Changes and Development of the Cold Chain Equipment Industry in the New Cycle." The presentation comprehensively summarized the recent development of China's refrigeration equipment industry, drawing significant attention from the sector. Below are the key takeaways from the speech—

Why Call It a "New Cycle"?
In recent years, due to consumption downgrading and market sluggishness, the stock market for cold chain equipment—including demand from food processing, chain catering, and supermarket chains—has peaked, making profitability increasingly challenging. As a result, the cold chain equipment market has entered a new cycle focused on exploring incremental growth.

Examining Industry Development from a Full Industrial Chain Perspective
First, a horizontal comparison reveals the performance of refrigeration equipment within the broader HVAC&R (Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration) industry. In 2024, the total scale of the HVAC&R industry is projected to reach ¥758.5 billion, with the refrigeration sector accounting for ¥246.8 billion (33%)—the fastest-growing segment. Refrigeration equipment leads with an 8.1% growth rate, outpacing the overall HVAC industry.

From a longitudinal perspective, the refrigeration industry has undergone cyclical changes at three key junctures:

1. 2017–2018: Two growth peaks driven by new energy efficiency standards for refrigerators and the rapid expansion of fresh e-commerce.

2. 2020–2021: Growth fueled by pandemic-induced home stockpiling demand and export surges.

3. 2022: Significant decline due to strict lockdown policies.
   In 2024, spurred by appliance replacement subsidies and overseas inventory replenishment, the market is expected to grow 8.1% year-on-year.

Segmented Applications
Refrigeration equipment can be categorized into three sectors: household, commercial, and industrial.

• Household refrigeration dominates (71% share, ¥174.7 billion in 2024), supported by exports and replacement policies.

• Commercial and industrial refrigeration saw declines in 2024 but achieved higher CAGRs of 7.2% and 7.6%, respectively, from 2014 to 2023.

Light Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Market
This segment includes diverse products, with refrigerated display cabinets as a focal point. While the overall market shrank (2019–2024), niche opportunities remain.

Heavy Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Market
Key products include cold storage (measured via condensing unit sales), refrigerated trucks, and containers. Tied to national economies and projects, this segment dipped in recent years but is poised for modest recovery in 2024.

Industrial Refrigeration Equipment Market
The only consistently growing sector over the past decade, buoyed by:

1. Ongoing large/medium-sized domestic projects.

2. Upgrades driven by carbon neutrality policies.
   However, 2024 may see a slight correction due to macroeconomic headwinds.